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Nebraska’s next governor made his fortune in bacon and racked up pollution complaints along the way. Now he’s turning his sights on alternative meat.
Last week, Nebraskans elected Republican businessman Jim Pillen to be the state’s next governor. It’s no surprise he won: Nebraska has picked a Republican in every gubernatorial election since 1998. But what made Pillen’s campaign so peculiar — and alarming to those who care about animal welfare and climate change — is that no other political candidate has campaigned so vehemently against veggie burgers and soy milk.
Throughout his campaign, Pillen vowed to “stand up to radicals who want to use red tape and fake meat to put Nebraska out of business,” and promised to work to pass laws that ban plant-based food producers from using words like “meat” and “milk” on their packaging.
While Pillen has a financial interest in such a ban — he runs Pillen Family Farms, the nation’s 16th largest pork company — “fake meat,” or more accurately, plant-based meat, currently poses little actual threat to Nebraska’s farmers, as it accounts for just 1.4 percent of US meat retail sales. Plant-based milks like oat milk or almond milk have captured a much bigger share of the dairy aisle — around 16 percent — but the dairy industry says it’s a minor factor in the decline of milk sales.
Pillen also has a financial interest in maintaining Nebraska’s hands-off regulatory landscape: His giant hog operations have been trailed by air and water pollution complaints since the 1990s. Pillen’s campaign did not respond to an interview request for this story.
The real aim, it seems, of his vitriol toward bean burgers — a tactic increasingly deployed by Republican politicians — is to ensnare plant-based meat into the culture war and further cleave an already divided electorate.
Real meat is for real Americans, while the stuff made from plants is touted by “coastal billionaires,” Pillen’s campaign asserted. The same message lit up right-wing media last year when the Daily Mail speculated — with zero evidence — that President Joe Biden’s climate change plan might limit red meat consumption. (What became the Inflation Reduction Act, which passed a year and a half later, didn’t touch meat; ensuring an abundant, cheap meat supply is a goal that still has bipartisan consensus in the US.)
The message resurfaced this summer when Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene nonsensically warned that the government was going to surveil and “zap” people who eat cheeseburgers. Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson, who served as the White House physician for five years and who won reelection last week along with Greene, tweeted “I will NEVER eat one of those FAKE burgers made in a LAB. Eat too many and you’ll turn into a SOCIALIST DEMOCRAT. Real BEEF for me!!”
I will NEVER eat one of those FAKE burgers made in a LAB. Eat too many and you’ll turn into a SOCIALIST DEMOCRAT. Real BEEF for me!!
— Ronny Jackson (@RonnyJacksonTX) November 5, 2022
Alarmism over imagined threats to meat consumption is nothing new. In 2012, an internal USDA newsletter about the agency’s sustainability efforts mentioned Meatless Mondays, which prompted pushback from congressional Republicans. But the sparring over meat has escalated in recent years, which is terrible news for the planet. Leading environmental researchers warn that even if we do stop all fossil fuel use, we’re still cooked if we don’t change what we eat.
Agriculture accounts for a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions, with meat, dairy, and eggs making up the bulk of those emissions. And farmers won’t be spared from the effects of a changing climate. Extreme weather events, like droughts, wildfires, and floods, can destroy harvests and kill farmed animals. Rising temperatures and changing ecosystems lower livestock productivity, reduce crop yields, and degrade nutritional quality.
Dragging plant-based meat into the culture war could also hurt Nebraska farmers’ bottom line in another way: The state is devoting more acreage to crops that go into plant-based meat. Late last year, the ingredient company Puris, which subcontracts for Beyond Meat, told the Independent it had increased pea production in Nebraska by 81 percent from 2019 to 2021 and expected further growth in the state. (The farmer interviewed also raises cattle and joked that he’s grabbing “both of these markets.”)
Nebraska is also a leader in growing beans, a longtime staple of plant-based products.
Johnathan Hladik, policy director for the Center for Rural Affairs — a Nebraska-based nonprofit that works to improve quality of life for small farmers and rural citizens — said farmers in the state don’t see plant-based meat as a significant threat. “It might be a humorous line in a conversation or a political punchline that gets good laughs and cheers,” he told me. “I don’t hear anybody having serious conversations about it.” Hladik’s family farms corn, soybeans, and cattle, and he raises animals himself that he sells directly to consumers.
According to Graham Christensen, a corn and soybean farmer and the head of a renewable energy company in Nebraska, plant-based meat and other issues invoked by Pillen — like state agriculture regulation, the EPA’s clean water rule, and the Biden administration’s conservation programs — are trotted out as boogeymen to distract from problems wrought by large meat producers like the governor-elect.
“This is a psychological scheme that has been deployed over and over on good rural Nebraska people and beyond, in order to allow business to go forward as is,” said Christensen, who isn’t a fan of plant-based meat but agrees the US needs to cut back on meat consumption.
What most worries farmers and advocates like Hladik and Christensen, more than the rise of plant-based meat, is the rapid consolidation of the meat and feed industries, which has squeezed out smaller farmers, as well as the scourge of air and water pollution across the Midwest that’s been caused largely by industrialized agriculture. Pillen, who has inveighed against “environmental crazies” and “the assault on modern agriculture,” is unlikely to address either.
Pillen’s not wrong that what he calls modern agriculture, a euphemism for large-scale, industrialized animal agriculture, is under attack. But in Nebraska, it’s not necessarily from the specter of plant-based meat or the Biden administration, which has largely taken the same hands-off approach to agricultural pollution that Pillen advocates. Rather, it’s often from Nebraskans angry that their state government has known about its water pollution problem for decades and has only allowed it to get worse.
Nebraska is home to around 100 million farmed animals, fattened up with a lot of corn and soybeans. An even bigger proportion of the state’s corn production goes to make ethanol that’s blended with gasoline, which researchers say is an inefficient use of land. Most farmers apply nitrogen-based fertilizers to make the corn and soybeans grow as big and fast as possible, which means they usually need less land to grow more feed than organic farmers — a good thing. But the synthetic fertilizer comes with a steep public health toll: Nitrogen from fertilizer leaks out as nitrate into groundwater, which some 85 percent of Nebraskans rely on for drinking water. Researchers have found that areas with high nitrate levels have higher rates of childhood cancer and birth defects, and high nitrate levels are linked to colorectal cancer and thyroid disease.
Rain, as well as water used to irrigate crops, also carries nitrogen off the land and into rivers and streams, which can kill off fish and pollute waterways.
The other major source of nitrogen pollution comes from farmed animals themselves. Farmers spread their manure onto crops as a natural fertilizer, but some of it — like the synthetic stuff — leaches into waterways and groundwater.
According to a damning recent investigation by the Flatwater Free Press, 59 of Nebraska’s 500 or so public water systems have violated the EPA’s nitrate limit of 10 parts per million since 2010 — a limit some researchers argue is still unsafe for children.
There are some practical, win-win solutions that Christensen and Hladik would like to see farmers take up to reduce nitrogen pollution, like planting trees and shrubs between cropland and waterways to prevent nitrate runoff, and cover-cropping — planting certain crops alongside corn and soy that can absorb nitrogen or reduce reliance on fertilizer. Silvia Secchi, a natural resource economist at the University of Iowa, told me the benefits of these practices will be limited because they’re voluntary and most farmers will only employ them if they get subsidies, which come and go.
Secchi, Christensen, and Hladik all agree that what’s really needed is regulatory activity and enforcement, such as improving water pollution monitoring and testing, permitting livestock farms so they’re further from homes and schools, fining repeat polluters, and requiring farmers to better manage manure.
But given the outsized political influence meat and animal feed producers wield in the state, it’s a lot to hope for, even at the local level. Nebraska has 23 natural resource districts, or NRDs — local governmental bodies made up of elected boards with the goal of improving water quality (among other issues). One elected NRD member, who wished to remain anonymous out of fear of retaliation, told me most NRDs are stacked with farmers or others involved in agriculture who resist reform.
“I hear this almost every board meeting: ‘Don’t tell me how to farm,’” they told me. The NRDs also have little to no enforcement authority: they can issue cease-and-desist orders that, if violated, can result in fines. The Nebraska Department of Environment and Energy (NDEE) has more authority, but Hladik said it’s underfunded and understaffed.
Even if it had people and money, it would need a mandate from the governor to clean up Nebraska’s wells and waterways. So far, that hasn’t come to pass; neither the NDEE nor any of Nebraska’s 23 NRDs have ever issued a cease-and-desist order or fine for excessive nitrogen fertilizer or manure application, according to the Flatwater Free Press. Meanwhile, cities, towns, and individuals have spent millions to treat water.
Water quality will likely worsen in the coming years, as Costco recently set up hundreds of barns and an enormous slaughter complex in the state to raise and process nearly 100 million chickens each year.
The Nebraska Association of Resources Districts did not respond to an interview request for this story. NDEE, responding to a request for comment, said in an emailed statement that it is “committed to an integrated approach to nutrient reduction that incorporates science-based and cost-effective targeted management practices” and that it “adheres to state statutory requirements and enacts regulatory authority through the department’s rules and regulations.”
Pillen, who has been on the receiving end of numerous state and citizen complaints against his business, benefits from Nebraska’s weak regulatory environment. In 1997, he received a complaint from the state over odors from one of his facilities. In 2000, a group of 18 plaintiffs sued over the stench of his hog operations, reporting a “musty hog shit smell” that “chokes you.” One woman said she felt she was a prisoner in her house, while another plaintiff complained that they couldn’t spend any time outside with their children and grandchildren. In 2013, a group of more than 100 people opposed new hog barns Pillen wanted to set up in Butler County, and two years later Pillen was cited for water pollution in another county.
“It’s really like putting the fox in charge of the henhouse to elect a guy like that,” said Secchi. The NRD member I spoke to used the same phrase when I asked them what they think of a Pillen governorship, as did a farmer.
Pillen and his family have received at least hundreds of thousands of dollars in federal subsidies from 1995 to 2019, according to the Environmental Working Group’s farm subsidies database.
Pillen has entered the political arena during a moment in which agricultural policy is returning to the national political stage; President Biden even mentioned cover crops in his first address to Congress. This is a welcome turn of events. But agriculture is full of counterintuitive trade-offs, and blanket statements made by red-meat conservatives like Pillen, and sometimes by progressive advocates of organic agriculture, only serve to degrade the discourse on a complex, critical issue.
With a global population hitting 8 billion people on a heating planet, we need to be able to ask why we’re growing so much corn to produce so much meat — and ethanol — in the first place, without the conversation devolving to pithy campaign slogans.
America’s meat consumption, at more than 250 pounds per person per year, is simply unsustainable at current levels. If we raised fewer animals in a more ecologically sound fashion, and opted for more plant-based meat, or occasionally swapped meat for Nebraska-grown beans, we wouldn’t need to grow so much animal feed that pollutes waterways and endangers rural communities. It’d be far easier to manage the mountains of waste generated in the US each year by nearly 10 billion animals that makes rural life increasingly unbearable for some. Less meat doesn’t mean rejecting agriculture, but rather rethinking what we devote precious land to — a rethinking that could also help struggling farmers economically diversify, as Christensen told me.
It’s all but guaranteed Pillen would’ve won without his polarizing comments on meat alternatives and his anti-regulatory ethos. But the culture war-ification of meat — intended to shore up rural identity and needlessly divide voters — is something to keep an eye on as the climate footprint of what we eat becomes increasingly impossible to ignore, and essential for policymakers to address.
Netflix’s hit show had real romantic promise in the first season. Now, it’s sadistic.
Like a desperation haircut you get while your stylist is on vacation, the third season of Netflix’s Love Is Blind will have you whispering over and over: This isn’t what I asked for.
Love Is Blind premiered in 2020 and was initially billed as both a three-week Netflix event and a social-romantic experiment testing whether or not humans could fall in love with each other sight unseen. “Experiment,” with its vaguely scientific and controlled connotations, turned out to be a generous description.
As the seasons went on, it became very clear that this process was anything but scientific — or controlled.
Here’s how Love Is Blind went from a sociological fairy tale to a reality TV nightmare in just three seasons.
The gist of the show is that no one would ever buy a car or rent an apartment without seeing it in person, let alone marry someone they’ve never laid eyes on. Yet, Netflix producers found a bunch of people who said they would in fact marry someone they’ve never seen. These guinea pigs were lit generously, miked up, and put on our television screens.
Over 10 days or so, these romantics would enter “pods,” cozy little rooms with a couch and a shared wall, talk to their prospective spouses, and have their interactions filmed. The show calls those conversations “dates,” and multiple dates qualify as a boyfriend/girlfriend scenario (the couples on all three seasons are heterosexual). If those dates flame out, those strangers become “exes” — but if they’re successful, the eventual goal is engagement after a mere four weeks.
Love Is Blind loves to call things by other names, creating (or at least trying to create) a surreal reality where conventional customs and definitions are suspended.
The first season resulted in two married couples — Cam and Lauren (very sweet and likable) and Barnett and Amber (less likable, but good for them) — who are still married to this day. Cam and Lauren’s coupling was the show’s best-case scenario of the “experiment” working out. They’re both very good-looking, possess regular-ish jobs (he’s a scientist, she’s a social media content creator), and have friends and family that are supportive of them. If these ostensibly normal, very hot people could genuinely fall in love under such wild circumstances, then this zany show couldn’t be that far-fetched.
The biggest breakout star, though, was Jessica, a woman who got engaged to a man named Mark in the pods but was actually more into Barnett.
Jessica tried to woo Barnett after the pods, which made things awkward for the rest of the cast, including her own fiancee. Jessica also got sad, got drunk, and fed her dog wine. Shortly after this, fans and cast members alike dubbed her “Messica,” a portmanteau to help triangulate her chaotic energy.
Producers seemed to notice this and used what they learned from Jessica to fiddle with their experiment. I predicted that the more seasons the show would go on, the more cynical it would end up becoming. And oh look, I was right.
The second season featured more face-to-face time with people who didn’t pair up in the pods, including Shaina, a hairdresser who seemed intent on sabotaging engaged couple Natalie and Shayne because she was attracted to the latter. Season two also featured Jarrette and Mallory, who had feelings for each other despite both being engaged to other people. Jarrette and his partner Iyanna were one of the two couples who got married on the show, but both ultimately dissolved.
Producers also found Shake, a man who by his own description was laser-focused on marrying a woman small enough to carry on his shoulders during a music festival. Nothing mattered more to him than this quality, and he was extremely rude to his partner Deepti because she was too big for him to lift at, like, Coachella. Shake was 33 at the time of filming.
The couples flopped, but the show thrived.
Producers added a follow-up, three-episode installment, Love Is Blind: After the Altar in September 2022. The supplemental epilogue caught up with the second-season cast to see if any romance had sparked since the initial filming. However, the show aired after the couples announced their real-life separations and divorces, turning the viewing experience into a dying relationship autopsy of sorts.
That brings us to this demented third season, a show that barely resembles its original self, but one that I’ve come to appreciate for different reasons.
Are there thoughtful pairings based on mutual respect? Not exactly. Are there potential couples digging deep to share their true selves without the burden of physical appearance? Not so much.
But there are more face-to-face moments between the contestants and more forced interactions between the couples and exes who didn’t work out. That’s led to an acute increase in men telling their partners that other women are hotter than them. Instead of a quest to find love, the show has become a will-they-or-won’t-they for dodging bullets.
And I cannot stop watching. Because have you ever wanted to see someone get their shit rocked so bad that you tune in week after week? If not, I encourage you to give it a try.
“FLIES! IN! HIS! TOILET! FLIES IN HIS TOILET!”
I was home alone when I screamed this. I didn’t do it for anyone to hear, but to reassure myself that I wasn’t hallucinating or having a stroke. This disgusting image appears in episode seven. Four flies are huddling together in the basin of Cole’s toilet, presumably eating the grime that hasn’t been cleaned in weeks.
Cole, 27, is one of the male contestants in this installment and has become the show’s breakout villain. He was attracted to two women in the pods, Colleen and Zanab, but chose Zanab, he says, because of the emotional connection they forged. That didn’t stop him from telling Colleen, upon seeing her, that he was very attracted to her — much more than he was attracted to Zanab. At one point, he tells Zanab about his attraction to Colleen in more or less the same manner he expressed it to Colleen. To no one’s shock, it does not go over well.
Cole and Zanab’s other conflicts include her not wanting him to leave his wet towels on floors, on tables, and on beds. Her dislike of wet towels strewn around their living areas and her direct request to him to pick them up is, Cole says, her being passive-aggressive. On multiple occasions, Cole also tells Zanab that she isn’t the type of girl he’s usually dated (Colleen is) and that Cole’s parents have no intention of meeting her either. At one point, he asks if she is bipolar, not as a genuine question about her mental health but rather as an insult. Also, flies in the toilet!
If not for what seems to be each contestant’s contractual obligation to only dump their prospective spouse at the altar in matrimonial attire, these two people would not be together. And that’s exactly the point.
What makes Love Is Blind so compelling is that it amplifies the awful facets of dating — desperation, miscommunication, anxiety, arguments — to such an uncomfortable and outsized degree that regular, real-life dating feels like a relief.
As bad as things get in the real world, it’s unlikely anyone will ever tell you that you’re being psychotic and passive-aggressive for wanting someone to hang up their towel. As bad as we’ve treated people, we probably have never told them — as Bartise, another male contestant, says to his partner Nancy — that they aren’t a “smokeshow,” and we would never — as Bartise also does to Nancy — squeal to our family about how our partners don’t share the same political views in the hopes said family members will bully our partners to change their minds.
These dysfunctional relationships exist to reassure the audience at home that we’d be smart enough to get ourselves out of these relationships. We would, of course, be aware enough to clock this kind of toxicity if it ever entered our own lives … right?
What sets this season apart, though, is how much of it was spent waiting for Cole (and to a lesser extent, Bartise) to face some kind of comeuppance. The show’s dramatic tension hinged on the hope that these men would experience something worse than getting dumped. Perhaps I am a vindictive spinster, but doesn’t everyone have an ex like that?
Maybe, after the 30th time of her telling him to pick up his damp towel and put away his dirty underwear and him insinuating for the 29th time that she is a crazy shrew, Zanab would finally leave Cole. Maybe someone — perhaps our hosts Nick and Vanessa Lachey — would intervene and tell Cole that he is an overgrown baby and Zanab that she needs to love herself. But that never happened. Like a nature documentary that you can’t show young kids because a lion takes a chomp out of a zebra and the zebra is just walking around with its guts out, Love Is Blind keeps the camera rolling.
The closest thing the show gave us to some kind of justice was the reunion, in which Zanab and the female contestants said Cole was extremely immature and not a pleasure to date. At one point, they mention that the editors were extremely kind to Cole and didn’t show some of his more loathsome behavior — mainly fat-shaming Zanab. After telling Zanab that she is “insane” and “crazy,” fellow cast members urge Cole not to use ableist language, to which he responds that, fine, Zanab is a liar.
Just when I had made up my mind and thought I could put this season away, though, the nasty producers of this horror show included a post-credits scene seemingly designed to wreak further havoc upon my already-corroded brain.
Throughout the reunion, an anecdote about Cuties, the easy-to-peel, sweet mandarin oranges, kept coming up. Zanab said that she had wanted to eat two, but Cole fat-shamed her into not eating them. This scene had never been shown. The producers then included the footage as a post-credits scene, and it does show Cole is telling her not to spoil her “appetito.” The interaction doesn’t seem as awful as Zanab painted it to be, and the damage was done: I could no longer fully believe Zanab either.
For the first time this season, it wasn’t clear who was in the wrong, who was in the right, and what the truth was about a seemingly very simple, obvious, terrible relationship. Having long established that love is not actually blind, this season’s revelation that relationships — even brief, made-for-TV ones — are not tidy made the surreal show as real as it has ever been.
I was left to choose between a man who has flies in his toilet or the woman who loved the man with flies in his toilet. A man who possibly fat-shames and a woman who may have exaggerated about the psychic violence of this Cuties interaction. It’s not an appealing choice but it affirms one thing: Being single is okay too. Well, until next season, of course.
Russian strikes have devastated Ukraine’s energy networks as winter approaches.
In Kyiv, residents prepare for daily blackouts. They’re typically staggered by neighborhood, and don’t happen all at once; four hours off, four hours on, like that, all day, a checkerboard of light and dark, hot and cold, across the capital. People in Kyiv can look up their addresses and check the weekly schedule, so they’ll remember when to charge their phones or take a shower. The planning helps, but it isn’t foolproof. The power can go out without warning. Russia can send in more missiles, as they did this week. In big apartment buildings, people leave food and water and diapers in the elevators, in case the electricity cuts off and a neighbor gets stuck, for who knows how long.
A version of this exists in other regions in Ukraine — Chernihiv, and Sumy, and elsewhere, many of which, like Kyiv, faced a barrage of Russian air strikes during October that targeted civilian and energy infrastructure, like power substations and transmission lines. In those October attacks, about 400 targets in 16 oblasts (regions) were damaged, including dozens of energy facilities, according to Ukrainian officials at the time.
On Tuesday, Russia launched another round of strikes, about 90 missiles, hitting at least 15 energy facilities across Ukraine. “Burnt residential buildings. Destroyed power plants again. Hundreds of cities were left without electricity, water, and heat. Internet traffic has fallen by two-thirds — imagine the scale,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an address to G20 leaders.
The scale of the destruction makes quick repairs impossible. Replacement parts are not often readily available. Energy infrastructure also remains vulnerable: A lot of it is big and out in the open; once hit by a missile and fixed, it can be hit again. “It’s not possible to repair quickly after it’s been damaged,” said Vladimir Shulmeister, founder of the Infrastructure Council NGO and former first deputy minister of infrastructure of Ukraine from 2014 to 2015. “There were some spare parts, some electric power stations has been repaired, but there will be new problems coming from the air.”
That is on top of all the other destruction Ukraine accumulated in months and months of war: houses and apartment buildings, bridges, roads, railways. There is always collateral damage in conflict, but Russia’s attacks on non-military critical and energy infrastructure are intentional. “This is not a new tactic for Russia,” said John Spencer, a retired Army officer and chair of urban warfare studies at the Madison Policy Forum. “If you think about what they did in Chechnya, and in Syria, to basically bring the civilian population to such despair that they’re willing to capitulate.”
Moscow’s targeting of infrastructure, which some have argued amounts to war crimes, is an effort to undermine Ukraine’s economy and deprive people of essential services — heat, water, electricity — as winter approaches. Russia is struggling against Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the east and south, and so Moscow is trying to extend the war and spread out that pain across Ukraine, not just in war zones. All of it will make Ukraine even more reliant on aid from the West, which is dealing with its own inflation and energy crises. “Russians are actually now acting very cruel, but also in a very well-thought-through way,” said Andriy Kobolyev, former chief executive officer of Ukraine’s largest national oil and gas company Naftogaz.
In areas closer to the fighting, the infrastructure destruction is even more extreme, but also harder to fully assess. Zelenskyy accused Russian troops of destroying “all the critical infrastructure: communications, water, heat, electricity,” before retreating from Kherson last week. In Mykolaiv, in southern Ukraine, Russia cut off the city’s water supply months ago; salt water had run through the taps for months, and potable water is now just being restored. Zelenskyy said in early November, before the latest round of air strikes, that Russian attacks damaged about 40 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure; precise data on how badly and where is hard to get, in part because Ukraine is closely guarding that information as a matter of national security.
Ukraine, so far, has been managing these challenges: stepping up public and private efforts to obtain and fund replacement parts, and deploying mitigation efforts like planned blackouts and urging Ukrainians to conserve energy. Officials have also told people who already fled the country they should not return because the energy system is stressed. “Ukrainians became energy efficient not by choice, but by war,” said Maryna Ilchuk, counsel in the Kyiv office of CMS Cameron McKenna LLC and board member of the Women’s Energy Club of Ukraine.
Ukraine does now have more advanced Western air-defense systems to help defend against Russian air bombardments; on Tuesday, an advisor to Zelenskyy said Ukraine shot down 70 of the 90 or so Russian missiles. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that its NASAMS air defense system, delivered recently, has had a “100 percent” success rate intercepting Russian missiles, and Ukraine is likely to push for more such systems to defend against Moscow’s onslaughts.
A lot remains unpredictable. Ukraine’s ability to withstand the winter depends on the things like the frequency and ferocity of Russian attacks, how effective its air defense systems are, or how cold the winter becomes. But the magnitude of the destruction so far, the difficulty of repairs, and Russia’s ability to continue to wage war against the same targets multiple times, means Ukraine will struggle to maintain and protect its infrastructure this winter, to keep the lights and heat on.
But, so far, Russia’s attacks have not diminished Ukrainian morale; if anything, it’s hardened attitudes against Russia, and any sort of negotiated settlement. “Ukrainians,” Shulmeister said, would “rather be frozen and not washed, than becoming part of Russia.”
Russian attacks in October damaged five of the six thermal power plants run by DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy investor. They had successfully undergone repairs. But after a pause of a few weeks, Russian again unleashed strikes on Tuesday.
During this latest wave, at least one of those plants was hit, and the rest were running at about 50 percent capacity, DTEK CEO Maxim Timchenko told Vox. As of Wednesday, DTEK is still assessing the scale of the damage.
Ukraine generates electricity through a few means — nuclear power, coal, and natural gas, mostly. Russia isn’t really attacking Ukraine’s ability to generate power, but taking out different limbs of the systems that help convert and carry and eventually distribute electricity to homes and businesses.
As experts said, power substations — which are basically the connector between the power-generating facilities to the distribution networks that get electricity to users — are a frequent target. “You have multiple ways to deliver electricity to a city, but all these delivery roads go through the substations. By damaging these large substations, they just cut those power lines effectively coming from power plants to cities,” said Dennis Sakva, a Kyiv-based energy sector analyst at Dragon Capital.
Russia is also targeting things like transmission lines that carry electricity, or transformers that transfer electricity from one circuity to another. Altogether, it means providers can’t deliver enough power to the cities and towns to meet the demand, and so they have to limit consumption with things like planned or “stabilization” blackouts. But if there’s a sudden spike in demand, or another substation or transmission line goes down, the lights, the water, the heat can go out, without notice.
And this isn’t just one substation or a few transmission lines; this is all over Ukraine — dozens and dozens of wounds to the network. “The scale of damages is so large that it makes it almost impossible for timely repairs and getting back to normal,” Sakva said.
Finding spare parts to make repairs is one of the biggest challenges. Energy companies don’t necessarily have huge stocks, and replacements can be difficult to produce. According to Kobolyev, the former energy chief, it can take months; the lead time for one large transformer, he said, is usually 12 months. Some of Ukraine’s infrastructure, like its coal-fired plants, were built during the Soviet era, adding to the difficulty of repairs. Timchenko, of DTEK, said they have to sometimes reallocate parts from other Ukrainian plants, or find similar models from other former Soviet states, like in Eastern Europe, that might have similar specifications. “The biggest concern is that we run out of stock, and it cannot be replaced,” Timchenko said.
Energy companies are coordinating with the Ukrainian government to seek emergency equipment donations from abroad, from private firms and governments, and then direct it to where repairs are most urgently needed. The wish-list includes things like power transformers, generators, pipes, insulators, and welding machines.
This acute scramble, of course, is piling on to the infrastructure struggles Ukraine has faced since Russia launched its full-on assault in Ukraine last February. Even in places like Kyiv, and its suburbs, where Russia retreated from in April, houses are still bombed out, roads still destroyed. In April, Ukrainian officials had estimated that about 30 percent of its transportation infrastructure was damaged, though, Shulmeister said, transport problems are easier to fix than energy ones.
Zaporizhzhia, the largest power plant in Ukraine and Europe’s largest nuclear plant, came under Russian control, and it shut down its reactors repeatedly because of fighting and safety concerns, cutting it off from the Ukrainian grid. Russian attacks have also taken out renewable energy infrastructure — as much as 50 percent of its solar capacity, and 90 percent of its wind turbines.
“These attacks against critical infrastructure — the reverberating effects for the civilian population have been massive so far,” said Alexander Grif, Ukraine country director for the Center for Civilians in Conflict. “And we have not even entered winter in Ukraine.”
Ukrainian officials called Russia’s latest barrage the worst of the war to date. It will stress a system already struggling from October’s attacks, with few parts of society or the economy spared.
For civilians, the power going out, of course, means you don’t have lights or television or an internet connection for a few hours. If you use gas for cooking, a few people said, you’re now one of the lucky ones. But electricity is also key to keeping other utilities running, like water and heat. District heating, often used in cities, depends on electric pumps to move hot water, which is used to heat homes; approximately 53 percent of urban households in Ukraine rely on such systems as their main heating source during the winter. As Sakva pointed out, if the heat and water go out, pipes might freeze up, and then when they thaw, it can create a humanitarian disaster. A big city without a water supply is also a sanitation hazard, as it creates hygienic risks and people lack clean drinking water.
Some people in Kyiv said, right now, the indoors can feel like the outdoors. But the coldest months are not here yet; the temperature in January and February hovers around 30 degrees Fahrenheit in Kyiv. Homes damaged by strikes — blown out windows, or broken pipes — would be hard to heat even if utilities were working at full capacity.
Right now, the priority is getting the most urgent systems up and running. “We are trying to restore the assets that are required immediately to survive during the winter period. So pipes, heating tubes, heated infrastructure, electricity infrastructure, and things like that,” said Vladyslava Grudova, who is tracking infrastructure damages as co-head of the project damaged.in.ua.
The full extent of destruction Russia has unleashed on critical energy infrastructure is hard to fully gauge. Experts and analysts told me that, especially since the Kremlin is targeting these elements, Ukraine is closely protecting that information, though official statements and industry data — along with the realities of everyday Ukrainians — offer at least some clues.
As of September, estimates of damage to energy infrastructure landed somewhere around $13.4 billion, but that predates Russia’s October and November assaults, which means the figure is likely much higher. The Kyiv School of Economics, which is in the process of revising their data for October, estimates about $127 billion in total infrastructure damage as of September 1, with about $50 billion of that just housing costs alone. In September, the World Bank assessed Ukraine’s physical damage at about $97 billion, with the total rebuilding costs somewhere closer to $350 billion.
Ukraine will need economic and humanitarian aid to get through the winter — generators, and winter coats, and clean water supplies, which are being delivered, though the scale of which is still unclear. Strikes and shelling make the delivery of that aid more challenging, too. Authorities are trying to come up with back-up plans, including emergency heating centers and warnings to stock up on firewood as an alternative heating source, although as someone pointed out, it’s not like you can lug a wood-burning stove up to your high-rise apartment.
Energy analysts and experts also say that military aid matters here, too, specifically air defense systems that allow Ukraine to intercept Russian strikes. These systems can’t cover everything, but as Spencer said, they do help Ukraine protect the critical infrastructure in major cities, which is exactly what Putin is attacking.
And these energy problems are directly connected to that battle for Ukrainian territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin has targeted civilian infrastructure in response to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which has successfully wrested back some Russian-controlled territory in the east and south. Ukraine is trying to push ahead to make as many gains as possible ahead of winter, when cold weather and frozen ground and lack of coverage will change the nature of the fighting, and force both sides to adjust tactics.
But Russia sees these attacks on critical systems as a strategy to grind down Ukraine, which means the risk of more destruction will persist. A crippled energy infrastructure will affect every corner of Ukraine, as it disrupts communication and transport networks, banking and postal networks, and food and agricultural production. That will threaten to displace more people and create pockets of humanitarian emergencies.
All of these vulnerabilities may also make it harder for Ukraine to wage war on the front lines, in what will be, no matter what, a very long winter.
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“Don’t call me son,” I said. “You’re not my dad.”
He scratched his head, “No, but I brought you up, didn’t I?”
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Probably because we couldn’t understand what Eddie Vedder was saying.
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The same one over and over and over again.
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On my lap, turned on, and virus free
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Rescuers have already pulled 10,000 dead bodies from the wreckage and are still pulling out more…
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